A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
